In About-face, White House Considers Waivers On Iran Oil Sanctions

In About-face, White House Considers Waivers On Iran Oil Sanctions

"Supply-side factors, including declining production in Venezuela and the reintroduction of sanctions on Iran have been the main drivers of the rise in oil prices, although demand has also remained robust".

Crude futures rose on Friday as USA unemployment data eased concerns about demand in the world's top oil consumer, with both benchmarks set for a weekly gain ahead of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

Trump has been blaming the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries for rising crude prices ever since he decided in May to tear up the nuclear agreement with Iran and re-impose sanctions. No matter what the outcome, however, the State Department's lawyer has argued that the judiciary "lacks prima facie jurisdiction to hear Iran's claims" because the US had a right to defend its national security among other interests and that the 1955 treaty "cannot, therefore, provide a basis for this court's jurisdiction". But its output has declined sharply in recent months under the threat of US sanctions.

On the one hand, Russia's oil sector stands to benefit economically by increasing its oil exports and thus increasing sales.

The move could also be part of an effort by Moscow to make global oil policy bilaterally with the Saudis, which began a few years ago and has largely decreased the effectiveness of OPEC, of which Iran is a member.




While concerns about $100 a barrel oil have run rampant recently, Barclays takes a different approach in its latest prediction.

The situation is not helped by analytical prognostications that in some cases are extremely erratic, case in point: Goldman Sachs, which over the past week has changed its mind repeatedly about if other nations can make up for the Iranian shortfall and whether prices will or will not spike. This led some analysts to suggest that the details of the deal were intentionally leaked in order to keep the price of oil from continuing to climb ahead of the November 4 deadline. "But the price for the Saudi strategy to cover those supply losses are extreme low spare capacity, and that worries the market".

Khamenei's comments came prior to the date of US President Donald Trump's second batch of sections against Tehran, expected next November 4.

Some energy market analysts expect around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to disappear once USA sanctions against Iran come into force, while others have warned as much as 2 million bpd could come offline over the coming months.

Iranian crude oil and condensate exports slumped to just under 1.7 million b/d in September, a fall of nearly 700,000 b/d from May, according to Platts estimates.

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